Rudinblog: The DAB Indecision Decision-Makers

One of the things I learned on management courses that I was sent on (both the BBC and the commercial operators, EMAP, thought that I had potential to rise in this area - the poor, deluded fools!) was that not making decision about something IS a decision. You might try and convince yourself that you have merely postponed a decision and that all your options are still open, but your indecision is still a decision. You don't know that those options will remain, or at least won't be exactly as they are now.

So, as far as the UK radio industry is concerned, the government announcement that there was no longer a commitment to switch off the analogue transmitters - of at least the national and major local services, even at an undefined point, based on some criteria being met - was the most significant of the year.

That key fact was, of course, hidden amongst a thicket of face-saving announcements about increased spending on transmitter networks and a second attempt at finding providers for services on a second national commercial multiplex, but the fact was none the less stark for that.

The sort-of target date of 2015 for the analogue switch-off (set by the previous government in its 2009 digital radio strategy, provided certain conditions were met), had already looked to me rather like Gordon Brown's conditions to be reached before the UK would join the Euro. It was solemnly announced by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer that every so often a committee would meet to assess the situation re these criteria and report to Parliament. But it was clear that the 'in principle' decision to join the Euro was more than outweighed by - to the fury and frustration of Tony Blair - the determination to kick the ball not so much out of the park but into the next county, otherwise known as "Never Neverland".

So it is with switch to DAB. And the reason is nothing to do with the technology (still really good, even if relying on MP2 and other bits and bytes have been superseded, not least by the France-adopted DAB +) or lack of commitment by the BBC or large commercial operators, or the commitment of car manufacturers. The reason is politics and (often pretty much the same thing) economics. A cost and benefit analysis. What's to gain and what's to lose.?

In the switch to free, over-the-air Digital TV, not only was there, in sharp contrast with radio, a clear appetite for more TV channels. And not only was there a brilliant bit of kit called a Freeview box, developed after it was given a full commitment by then BBC Director-General from the ashes of the failed ITV OnDigital project, but the Treasury stood to gain billions by selling off the analogue frequencies. Not so with radio - the vacant FM channels were mostly to be used for new community services. This sector was - as I discussed in my Master's dissertation at the end of the last century (!) and later published in a peer-reviewed Journal - initially promised a berth on the new radio system, but in the event was squeezed out by the BBC and big commercial companies.

Now, I'm sure the government sincerely believes that community radio is a GOOD THING, and there is a constituency for that, but it's not a powerful one and the people who want to develop the 'third tier' may not natural Conservative supporters!

Furthermore, those who feel most threatened by a successful and dynamic community sector are the small commercial operators, who, with the group which owns TalkSport, have split from the established commercial radio trade body, largely over the DAB issue. These companies find the cost of going onto DAB - pretty much forced on them - ruinous financially and see no benefit. Being small and medium-scale enterprises they might also feel they should be supported by a Conservative-led government.

In TV, commercial operators did not have to be bribed through having their licences automatically extended if they went on a digital platform, as they were very happy to have their channels - unlike those of rival Sky's - universally available to the public, for the cost to the punters of a one-off payment for a box or new TV (with the former gifted to the elderly). In contrast again to TV, most of the public were going to get a new tele' anyway in the run-up to switchover, as Cathode Ray Tubes' sets were being superseded by flatscreen, HD models. So, the government of the day could be confident that the numbers if refuseniks would be small and capable of being placated.

With radio, the outrage of (shall we call it?) the 'Mail' and 'Telegraph' constituencies, furious at the prospect of being told that their perfectly serviceable (and even loved) sets, in the home, work-place and car, were going to fall silent, for no obvious benefit - their fury even further pumped up by those with technical knowledge that DAB was, in the reality of the numbers of services 'squeezed' onto each multiplex, inferior to DAB, and reception lest robust. These constituencies are more likely to be elderly; the elderly are more likely to vote, and more likely to vote Conservative...you're the Conservative minister with responsibility for this area - well, what YOU do?

I recently completed some in-depth market research on DAB - albeit with a small sample (one). It was with our plumber/joiner. Top bloke! He has a classic workman's radio - case quite badly damaged, paint over it, and an aerial bent in more places than a 12 year-old Soviet girl gymnast. He is, I'd guess, in his mid-20s. His listening repertoire over the two weeks or so (!) he was doing the work was Real Radio, on FM.

Has he heard of DAB? "Hmmm...yes, I've been thinking of maybe getting one - just haven't got round to it." Why would he think of buying one? "(Thinks), well, you get the stations better, don't you? Sometimes I don't get this one (Real) very well, it goes all crackly." What does he do then? "I just fiddle around till I get something else (I push him for names of stations, as I go through a list on my clip-board-JOKE!)...Capital, Radio 1...WISH (local IR station)...anything really if it's sort of alright". Was he aware there were stations that were not on FM but were on DAB? "Well, yeah, but I don't want any others...I'm happy with these". I make him another coffee (!) and then bring up the possibility of listening on other devices. "Oh, yeah, I often use my iPhone now, if there's wi-fi..or G3..trouble is, it uses up the battery."

This confirms my belief - for anyone aged under about 35, and plenty above - that the DAB train has long left the station and they weren't on it, and the next change they will make to the 'platform' for their listening habits (if not already done so) is on their Smartphone. Only limitations on battery usage and of course the wi-fi/G3 networks inhibit this. Hardly anyone under the age of around 30 would ever think of putting 'a radio' on their Santa list any more than they would think of reading a 'newspaper', unless they were bored and picked up the Metro on the train.

One of the most interesting parts of the two hour review of the radio year on the BBC 5 Live, broadcast on last week (December 26/29) was the final section which followed how a group of young people used radio. It was fascinating! Many of them weren't even aware they were 'listening to the radio'. All they cared about was the content, which often had associated visual and text 'layers', and it was available on their digital, multimedia devices and that they could both interact with it and build and PERSONALISE the content. Rather than obsessing about a specific broadcast system versus another, as they have been for almost 20 years now, the industry would be far better on ensuring that their content was available, 'front page', top of menu, on every operating system and every type of screen known to personkind! Mix the existing analogue and digital broadcast systems with the Internet, the one immediately leaping to replace the other, to provide a seamless access. And then, of course, make sure the content, production and presentation is as beguiling, relevant, fascinating and contains as much stuff that you just can't get anywhere else, as you can. Or, if you like: Never mind the band-width, feel the content.

Have a great 2014. Like radio today, I expect it will have varied content, and mixed delivery systems!

P.S. You can read much more about the theory, background and the challenges and opportunities for radio, in a new book by m'learned friend, Andrew Dubber: Radio in the Digital Age. Published by Polity.